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Fares, Ridership and Service

The condition of transit service, its cost and quality, feature in the current municipal election debates. Some of the info quoted by candidates and their supporters is accurate, some is not. One could shrug one’s shoulders and say “t’was ever thus”. In an attempt to get clear information out on the table, this article collects financial and ridership info for past two decades to give a longer view.

Some of this is quite detailed. There is no way to avoid this in looking at service because too often the stats are presented in aggregate with averages that hide what individual riders on individual routes see.

Data Sources:

Comparing Today With Pre-Pandemic Service

Trips and Fare Level

The annual count of trips grew through the early 2000s, and this was a source of pride to the TTC and its Board. However, that growth stalled in the mid-2010s and showed a slight downturn. The Board was still patting itself on the back as the growth curve flattened out and the rate of growth dropped.

At the time, the sense was that more of the growth came in the off-peak where there was surplus capacity rather than in the peak where crowding was severe. Eventually even the off-peak service filled up and new riders stopped appearing. During the same period there had been small fare increases, but at a level where service rather than fare was the dominant factor affecting growth.

2020 brought the covid pandemic and a steep drop in ridership. Note that the full year effect is not seen until 2021 because the first two months of 2020 were “normal”.

Riding started to build in 2022, but remains below the pre-pandemic level for various reasons, notably a shift to work-from-home. Demand into downtown on the subway and streetcar networks is building again in 2026 thanks to increased work-from-office mandates, offset partly by a decline in student travel thanks to cutbacks in foreign student visas. Weather conditions, particularly the winter, also play a role in discouraging travel.

The TTC CEO’s reports shows modal riding changes occasionally, but does not give a month-by-month breakdown. 2026 will be an “odd” year thanks to extra World Cup traffic, offset by those who stayed away from downtown to avoid transit and traffic congestion, and the bitter winter months.

Fares grew slowly through the period up to 2020, but there was only a single 10-cent increase in 2023. This was a policy decision by the then-Mayor and Council, supported by special covid-era subsidies from the Provincial and Federal governments. These allowed service to be maintained at close to pre-pandemic levels through the dip in riding and fare revenue.

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Metrolinx Safety Deep Dive: Union Station Derailment

Recently, Metrolinx released a “Deep Dive” report into a derailment at Union Station that severely disrupted GO Transit operations.

As public Metrolinx documents go, this one is refreshingly candid about the events of February 2, 2026, although there are issues not mentioned that deserve both further study and public review.

In brief, a GO train was leaving Union Station westbound when a wheel on the last coach of the train derailed on out-of-gauge track. This affected both the coach and the locomotive which was at the rear (east end) of the train with the engineer in a cab car at the front (west end). The derailment was noticed by a passing UPX train whose crew sounded an emergency alarm, and the GO train stopped shortly thereafter.

Many issues were revealed by the subsequent investigation, and some bear an uncanny resemblance to the TTC’s investigation of its own SRT derailment in July 2023.

The severity of underlying problems with inspection and maintenance on GO’s Union Station Corridor were downplayed at a recent Board meeting by CEO Michael Lindsay who, in best Metrolinx tradition, put as positive a spin on the incident as possible. Only those who read the full report or the detailed media coverage based on it would know the full story. None of the Metrolinx Board members, a group who can be counted on for silence or only the softest of softball question, raised any issues in the public meeting.

An important finding in the report was that although Metrolinx had updated and tightened its standards for track fastening, there was no program to review existing infrastructure nor to bring it up to the new standard. Only if track were undergoing significant maintenance or renewal would the new standards kick in.

A further problem lies with inspection protocols that could detect the type of failure that led to the derailment. Most of this work is done by manual inspection, is repetitive, and problems with track fastenings might not be immediately obvious especially under the snowy conditions in early February. A post-incident review of the USRC (Union Station Rail Corridor) found a large number of similar failures in track fastening, almost one quarter of the areas checked. This is obviously not a problem that developed overnight or after one snow storm. Moreover, the report is silent on a review of the full GO network for compliance with current track standards.

The TTC parallel shows up first in their review of the SRT which revealed previously undetected failures similar to the one at the TTC’s derailment site where loose track fasteners went undetected. In turn this led to greater attention to subway track conditions and public reporting of Restricted Speed Zones (RSZs) that have bedeviled subway operation in past years.

Both the TTC and Metrolinx derailments raise serious questions about the integrity, accuracy and frequency of track inspections and corrective maintenance.

Another section of the report deals with the post-incident response and handling of complex needs for train and station operations, passenger information, and co-ordination of the entire process through various parts of the Metrolinx/GO organization. Processes that were adequate for day-to-day failed under the stress of many concurrent, urgent activities and the need for communication both among bodies responsible for various parts of the operation, and with passengers who needed to know where and when their trains would show up.

Because most of Metrolinx service operates on provincially-owned track, the Transportation Safety Board of Canada was not involved in this review, although they were notified of the incident.

Causes and Recommendations

There is a long section summarizing the causes, findings and recommendations of this report on pp 46-51 which I leave to readers to peruse rather than copying all of that text here.

Among the actions already taken are:

  • Bi-annual inspections of the USRC.
  • Autonomous track geometry testing technology to be operational in January 2027.
  • A $15-million program to address track surface conditions and make localized repairs in the USRC.
  • Additional Metrolinx Track Inspectors have been hired.

Several additional recommendations are in the report [p. 50].

Every Metrolinx meeting begins with a “Safety Moment”, but one cannot help asking how strong a connection to safety exists between this pro forma exercise and actual conditions on the ground. The response to this derailment showed a strong desire by staff to support passengers even, at times, in the face of inadequate supporting command and communication structures. However the derailment itself should not have occurred, and the question remains of just how strong a safety culture extends down to maintenance of critical infrastructure.

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Are You Riding the TTC More, But If Not, Why Not?

Liaison Strategies published a poll today, September 9, conducted for their Toronto Pulse Series and the Toronto Star. The questions concern mainly the coming mayoral election, and these have been covered in the mainstream media. However, there are four questions about TTC usage that make interesting reading considering how much transit policies are discussed (or not) in various circles.

The questions are:

  • Compared with before the COVID-19 pandemic, do you now choose to take the TTC more often, less often or about as often?
  • For those who cite “less often”:
    • What is the main reason you choose the TTC less often than you did before the pandemic?
    • What do you now use most often instead of the TTC for trips you previously made by transit?
  • What one of the following would be most likely to encourage you to choose the TTC more often?

The high level numbers are discouraging for transit advocates. Although 39% ride TTC about the same as before, 29% say less often while only 15% say more often. The remaining 17% are split between non-TTC users and “not sure”.

The detailed breakdown of these groups shows interesting differences across the city, but to a much lower extent by age and sex.

Unsurprisingly, the “more often” group is concentrated downtown with 27% of responses coming from there. The numbers drop off in the suburbs with 13% in North York, 11% in Etobicoke, and 9% in Scarborough.

Conversely, the “less often” group is 33% in Scarborough, 29% in North York, 28% in Etobicoke and 24% downtown.

The “About as often” numbers have a smaller range from 36% in Etobicoke to 41% in Scarborough.

The non-TTC-riders pre-pandemic were highest in Etobicoke at 19% and lowest downtown at 6%.

The details of why riders have left the TTC, and how both ex-riders and those still on the system can be encouraged to ride more follow in the long version of this article.

Overwhelmingly, riders (past and present) want better service — a combination of frequency, reliability and speed.

Better service usually means more vehicles and drivers, not to mention line management and a culture that values reliability. Transit priority has to be real, not something at selected locations when enough traffic wardens are free to wrangle motorists, pedestrians and cyclists who make up their own rules.

These cost serious money and step on political toes. Toronto Council has a dream of massively improved transit service, but no sense of how it would be implemented nor any plan for the necessary fleet, infrastructure and staff needed to ramp up service. Meanwhile we celebrate multi-billion dollar lines on maps in media events and election campaigns.

The TTC had a Strategic Planning Committee for the past few years, but it did not spend much time on real “strategy”, certainly not on options that might bring riders back to the TTC. Everyone seems afraid to talk about any policy that has a cost, and some penny-pinchers think every problem can be solved with belt-tightening. Exactly what is needed and possible is never debated nor presented for public discussion. Toronto bumbles from year to year with minimal changes most riders cannot see in their daily travels.

This survey and others like it from past years should be a wake-up call to Toronto that service matters, and Toronto politicians should explain just how much they will fight to improve the TTC beyond the status quo.

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TTC Service Changes Effective September 30, 2026 — Scarborough Busway Opens

The Scarborough busway using the former Line 3 Scarborough RT right-of-way will open on September 30. Most routes now using Midland and Kennedy to reach Kennedy Station will switch to the new busway. Affected routes are 38 Highland Creek, 129 McCowan North, 131 Nugget, 133 Neilson, 154 Curran Hall, 903 Kennedy Stn-Scarborough Express, 904 Sheppard-Kennedy Express, 938 Highland Creek Express & 939 Finch Express.

Buses will stop enroute at the former Ellesmere and Lawrence East stations, as well as a new stop at Tara Avenue midway between Lawrence and Eglinton.

Lawrence East Station will also be served by the 54/954 Lawrence East bus services as shown below. The station building will not be open, but riders can transfer via a walkway at the south end of the platform to the busway station.

Scheduled service levels and travel times remain the same on September 30 because this is a mid-board period change. The next board period with an opportunity for changes begins on Sunday, November 1, 2026. The TTC has not yet announced plans for schedule updates to take advantage of faster travel times on the busway.

I have been collecting tracking data on some routes using Midland and Kennedy for historical comparison, and will review actual operations in November once the October data are available.

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TTC Service Changes Effective Sunday, September 6, 2026 (Part II)

This article deals with the main batch of September 6 changes including:

  • Seasonal service changes
  • Warden Station construction
  • Routing changes at Kennedy Station
  • New services
  • Modified bus diversion for College/Carlton construction

Also included are various tables showing vehicle allocations, the service budget, and construction projects.

Detailed before-and-after service plan comparisons as well as destination sign changes are now available at the end of the article.

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Service Standards, Plans and Ridership Growth

In September, the TTC will launch public consultation on proposed changes to their Service Standards. Consultation on the 2027 Annual Network Plan is now underway.

The Service Standards are in a long document with many sections, and I am sure most members of the TTC Board have only a passing awareness of what it contains and how the standards work in practice. Given the timing of meetings and the coming municipal election, a revised set of standards will not come to the Board until the new year.

Other studies underway are the Ridership Growth Strategy (RGS), a review of the metrics used to monitor and report on the system, and a review of streetcar operations. These overlap in many ways, but given the siloed nature of TTC management are likely to come to the Board independently. This would not allow a consolidated review of goals and options for transit’s future together with current plans and the standards against which service is measured. This particularly important for any Ridership Growth Strategy which could be hamstrung by fiscal plans and approved standards that do not support meaningful growth.

See:

The public survey for the 2027 Annual Network Plan is now live until September 13. It deals with the following topics:

  • Stop changes on express bus routes
  • Routing changes to bus routes in the following areas:
    • Morningside Heights
    • Black Creek
    • Dupont Corridor
    • Sherway Gardens
    • Islington South

Details of these proposals appear later in the article.

A future version of the plan will include proposals for dealing with major construction projects in 2027.

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TTC Service Changes Effective Sunday September 6, 2026 (Part I)

Two sets of route changes have been announced by the TTC to take effect on September 6, 2026.

This is a preliminary version of the September 6, 2026 changes. Full service change details will be published in a separate article when they are available.

Updated September 12, 2026: A map of the temporary extension of 72 Pape at the south end of the route has been added.

St. Clair West Rail Bridge Reconstruction

The rail bridge over St. Clair Avenue West between Keele Street and Old Weston Road will be rebuilt to accommodate the new St. Clair West GO station.

During this work, 512/312 St. Clair streetcars will turn back from Earlscourt Loop at Lansdowne, and a 512B shuttle bus will operate from Gunn’s Loop (west of Keele) east to Lansdowne and south to Lansdowne Station.

Night service on 340 Junction will be extended east to Oakwood Loop.

Partial Reopening of Pape Station Loop

Ontario Line construction at Pape Station has progressed to the point that a partial re-opening of the bus loop is possible. The following routes are affected:

  • 100 Flemingdon Park will now terminate at Pape Station rather than at Broadview Station.
  • 8 Broadview and 62 Mortimer will resume use of Broadview Station as their western terminus and they will no longer run south to Gerrard & Broadview.
  • 72 Pape buses will loop through the station southbound, but will continue to load on the street outside the station northbound.

25/925 Don Mills and 87 Cosburn services will continue to operate to Broadview Station.

Updated September 12, 2026:

The 72 Pape route has been extended at the south end “to operate via Don Roadway,
Lake Shore Blvd E, and Saulter St instead of Saulter St, Lake Shore Blvd E, and Bouchette St to
provide an accessible connection to the 114 Queens Quay East”.

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How Slow Is My Streetcar: 512 St. Clair

This article compares travel times for the 512 St. Clair streetcar for June 2026 and June 2019. It is part of a series setting out the changes in operating speed of streetcar routes since the introduction of the new Flexity streetcars in the past decade.

Three sets of charts here show the operational behaviour of the route from different points of view:

  • Comparisons of travel speeds over segments of the line show broadly how, when and where travel speeds have changed.
  • A fine-grained speed profile of the line compares 2019 and 2026 data showing specific locations of changes, and in particular that speed differences lie across the route.
  • Charts of dwell times show locations and times where streetcars are held for passenger service and traffic signals. Congestion generally does not play a role because almost all of the route is on reserved lanes.

“Double stops” at traffic signals before farside loading islands remain a problem with streetcars not always getting a clear run through intersections. This is often discussed in transit and social media circles, but more work is needed to get true transit priority for streetcars on 512 St. Clair.

St. Clair also has very high terminal recovery times compared to travel time along the route. It is not clear that this time is needed, or if it is a relic of an era when TTC made service run “on time” by padding schedules so that it would never be late.

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How Slow Is My Streetcar: 511 Bathurst

This article continues a series reviewing the operating speeds of streetcar lines in detail looking at:

  • Evolution of travel times on 511 Bathurst from September 2019 to June 2026 by route segment.
  • Detailed profiles of operating speeds over the full route for the same months.
  • Locations where streetcars spend long dwell times including stops, traffic signals and road congestion.

The two intervals compared here are:

  • June 1-5, 2026: This was just before the upheavals of the World Cup period, but without any construction diversions that would distort the data. At this point, red lanes were installed on Bathurst from Bloor to Nassau (north side of Western Hospital), and from Dundas southward.
  • January 13-17, 2020: This was early in the operation of 511 Bathurst with the new Flexity streetcars, after the holiday period but before traffic conditions changed with the pandemic in March.

Locations of substantial delays lie mainly south and west of Queen and Bathurst, although the focus on priority has been further north. Some benefits of the red lanes are evident, but the south end of the route needs a detailed review to determine why supposed priority areas on Bathurst and on Fleet are locations for delay.

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